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I was going through some papers last week (okay, I was cleaning up my junk pile) when I came across an article written by John Adams in the AJC. It was called “Inside Advice” and titled “2008 prognosticators show existing home sales going up”. Mr. Adams is a well respected real estate practitioner and consultant. However, I think it is fair to say his prognostications on January 6, 2008 were a tad off, since we suffered the worst real estate meltdown in history that year. The logic surrounding the “facts” was, well, logical. It was just wrong in the end. As they say, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. Predictions get people all riled up. Everyone thinks their opinion is accurate, and some of them are right some of the time. I once heard the chairman of a major bank describe his relationship with another major chairman by saying “both of us think the other guy is an ____, but only one of us is right”. That’s why we will examine what’s already happened in real estate, and let you decide where you think we’re headed from here. The following table represents a moving picture of what the market has done in Pickens County over the last 25 months. The figures represent the number of homes on the market, the number of sales, the number of contracts pended, and the months of inventory based on sales and pended contracts. 

 Clearly the number of homes on the market has been reduced, meaning reduced supply spurs increased demand. The people who “really don’t need to sell” have given up trying to get a premium price in this challenging market. The number of homes sold during the last three months is up significantly, while the number of pending sales is even more favorable. These figures combine with the number of homes on the market to give you the number of months of inventory we have in Pickens based on sales and pended contracts, which has improved dramatically. Most people know that the average sale price is down, due to the number of distressed properties on the market. However, the average asking price and percentage of sale price to list price have remained fairly steady. That tells me that if you are willing to ask a reasonable price, and you are not in a hurry to sell, there are still buyers who will respect your candor. There are other factors to consider for the future. Unemployment looms large. The credit market is improving but still very conservative. Appraisals are sometimes disappointing to both seller and buyer, and can kill the sale. We have yet to see the light at the end of the tunnel on distressed properties, but indications are that more mortgage holders will turn to short sales rather than foreclosures to deal with them in the future. The negatives are somewhat offset by the positives, including historically low interest rates. The new extension and expansion of the tax credit to include all buyers should be a very positive factor in our winter and spring market.So when people ask me how real estate is “doing”, I should ask them if they are buying, selling, or investing. They all have challenges and opportunities. I get some skeptical looks when I say it’s getting better, but I think the numbers above point in that direction. We still have a heck of a long way to go to fully recover, but we seem to be scratching our way back. Ron Barnes can be reached at 678-520-6648. Prudential Georgia Realty is an independently owned and operated member of Prudential Real Estate Affiliates, Inc., a Prudential FinancialCompany. Equal Housing Opportunity. Statistics are taken from Trendgraphics.